In Key Ohio Senate Primary, Republicans Go with Trump Again
UVA | Center for Politics
by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
1d ago
We take a look at the ultimately not-close Ohio Republican Senate primary and other key results from the down-ballot primaries there and in Illinois. Right before the 2022 Ohio Senate primary, we asked a trusted source about rumblings that state Sen. Matt Dolan (R) was making a late charge in that race. This person’s response to the Dolan hype: “Just wishful thinking on part of moderate Rs in media.” Two years later, and the quote still applies. The post In Key Ohio Senate Primary, Republicans Go with Trump Again appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more
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The Republican Veepstakes 2024, Part Two: What History Suggests About Trump’s Options
UVA | Center for Politics
by Joel K. Goldstein
1d ago
Although many factors affect the pool of available vice presidential candidates, the two primary filters relate to party identification and past governmental experience. In particular, major party presidential nominees invariably choose a running mate who shares their party identification and who presently holds or previously held a small group of high governmental offices signifying political experience. These are discussed below in turn. The post The Republican Veepstakes 2024, Part Two: What History Suggests About Trump’s Options appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more
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Notes on the State of Politics: March 13, 2024
UVA | Center for Politics
by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
1d ago
In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we’re looking down the ballot—both at the overall House map now that redistricting is likely done, and at some important primaries coming up in the Midwest next week, highlighted by the Republican Senate primary in Ohio. The post Notes on the State of Politics: March 13, 2024 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more
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The Republican Veepstakes, Part One: Picking an Apprentice, Donald Trump’s Way
UVA | Center for Politics
by Joel K. Goldstein
1d ago
Following Super Tuesday and with both President Biden and former President Trump effectively set to be their respective party’s presidential nominee, we thought it was a good time to look ahead to one of the big political questions of the next several months: Who will Trump pick as his running mate? There is no one better to analyze Trump’s vice presidential choice than Joel Goldstein, a longtime Crystal Ball contributor and a leading expert on the presidential ticket’s second slot. In Part One of a two-part series, Joel goes over how the selection process has evolved, the early movement in th ..read more
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In Key Ohio Senate Primary, Republicans Go with Trump Again
UVA | Center for Politics
by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
1w ago
Dear Readers: This is our only planned issue of the Crystal Ball this week; we’ll be back next week. Below, we take a look at the ultimately not-close Ohio Republican Senate primary and other key results from the down-ballot primaries there and in Illinois. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Both Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) got their man in the Ohio GOP Senate primary on Tuesday night, as businessman Bernie Moreno (R) blew open what polls, in aggregate, suggested was a close race. A major Democratic outside spending group connected to Schumer ..read more
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The Republican Veepstakes 2024, Part Two: What History Suggests About Trump’s Options
UVA | Center for Politics
by Joel K. Goldstein
1w ago
Dear Readers: This is the second part of VP expert Joel Goldstein’s look at the 2024 Republican Veepstakes. After exploring some unusual aspects of the 2024 Veepstakes as it unfolded in the first weeks of this year and some unique aspects of former President Donald Trump as a running mate selector, the analysis now turns to consider the other two variables of VP selection—the pool of candidates and the context in which the choice arises. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If he sticks to history—and he very well may not—Donald Trump’s eventual vice presidential selection ..read more
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Notes on the State of Politics: March 13, 2024
UVA | Center for Politics
by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
2w ago
Dear Readers: Last night, Joe Biden and Donald Trump officially became the presumptive nominees of their respective parties, setting up a general election that (to us) basically started months ago. In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we’re looking down the ballot—both at the overall House map now that redistricting is likely done, and at some important primaries coming up in the Midwest next week, highlighted by the Republican Senate primary in Ohio. — The Editors Assessing 2024 congressional redistricting It’s easy to think of congressional redistricting as a on ..read more
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The Republican Veepstakes, Part One: Picking an Apprentice, Donald Trump’s Way
UVA | Center for Politics
by Joel K. Goldstein
2w ago
Dear Readers: Following Super Tuesday and with both President Biden and former President Trump effectively set to be their respective party’s presidential nominee, we thought it was a good time to look ahead to one of the big political questions of the next several months: Who will Trump pick as his running mate? There is no one better to analyze Trump’s vice presidential choice than Joel Goldstein, a longtime Crystal Ball contributor and a leading expert on the presidential ticket’s second slot. In Part One of a two-part series, Joel goes over how the selection process has evolved, the ea ..read more
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Running Out the Clock When Time is of the Essence
UVA | Center for Politics
by Carah Ong Whaley
2w ago
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Donald J. Trump, who has now effectively become the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, faces 91 felony counts and is charged with numerous crimes ranging from allegations that he tried to subvert elections, illegally hoarded classified documents, and falsified business records with a hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. — The Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump’s claims of immunity from prosecution for alleged crimes committed while he was in office. Based on the timing of SCOTUS decisions and the D.C. court’s timeline, it’s not clear whe ..read more
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What Stood Out from Super Tuesday
UVA | Center for Politics
by Kyle Kondik
3w ago
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — While one can point out weaknesses for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden in their Super Tuesday performances, each turned in dominant showings. — Senate matchups were set in the megastates of California and Texas, with the former a snoozer and the latter a sleeper. — Only one House member lost a primary—so far—but a few others showed weaknesses. Super Tuesday highlights It turns out that the 2024 presidential primary process will not be historic, at least in this sense: Nikki Haley’s victory in the Washington, D.C. primary over the weekend and then Vermont on Tues ..read more
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