A Guide for Choosing the Right Adjective to Describe How Good Something Is
Political Calculations
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1h ago
Choosing the right adjective can be a challenge. For example, let's say you want to precisely describe how good you think something is. Sure, you could just say "It's good", but what if the thing you're describing is better than that? Perhaps it's "quite good". Or "really good". Maybe it's even "very good", but is that better than something that's really good? What if it's "awesome"? Is something that's awesome better than something that's very good? Not knowing whether it is or not can lead to some really "mediocre" if not "rubbish" attempts to communicate on your part. Fortunately, YouGov r ..read more
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How Long Might It Take a Hacker to Crack Your Password by Brute Force in 2024?
Political Calculations
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1h ago
Computing technology continues to increase in capability every year. For hackers with top-of-the-line equipment, it is easier than ever for them to run through millions of combinations of characters to discover your passwords than ever before. But how long that might take them still depends on how many characters long it is and what combinations of numbers, lower case letters, upper case letters, and special characters you use in your password. Hive Systems has updated their "Time It Takes a Hacker to Brute Force Your Password" infographic for 2024. Here is the table: Hive Systems' Corey Nes ..read more
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Climbing Limo GDP Forecast for 2024-Q1
Political Calculations
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3d ago
Later this week, on Thursday, 25 April 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the United States' Gross Domestic Product during the first quarter of 2024. Because that date is so close, it's a good opportunity to check in with how 2024-Q1's GDP tracks with what a momentum-based forecasting method projected it would be for this quarter over seven months ago. That simple method, called the "Climbing Limo", uses nominal GDP data that was available back in September 2023 in its projections. The following chart reveals how closely that method worked for anticipati ..read more
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"No Rate Cut" Bear Scares S&P 500 Into Retreat
Political Calculations
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3d ago
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell again durin ghte third week of April 2024. The index closed out the week at 4,967.23, a little over three percent below the level it closed the second week. The index has dropped 5.5% below its record peak closing value from 28 March 2024. The main driving force behind the falling level of stock prices are slipping expectations for when and by how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during 2024. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3) w ..read more
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Outside the Box Thinking: The Flying Orb
Political Calculations
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5d ago
What happens when you embed a miniature flying drone inside a ball? Or more precisely, when you mount a lightweight miniature drone inside a ball-shaped frame that allows air to pass through so the drone's rotors can work? What you get is a bit of modern magic that lets you play catch with yourself. Meet the Flying Orb Ball Hover Toy, or "the boomerang ball", the concept of which is demonstrated in the following short video (HT: Core77): Versions of this technological wonder are available at retailers like Amazon and Walmart. And like many modern tech-based toys, it has a rechargeable batter ..read more
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Turbulence Signaled by S&P 500 Dividend Futures Arrives
Political Calculations
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1w ago
Nearly four weeks ago, we put down a marker for what lay ahead for the S&P 500 based on the index' quarterly dividend futures. Looking beyond 2024-Q2, you'll see something unusual. There's projected drop-off in quarterly dividends between 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3. It's unusual because we would ordinarily expect to see the third quarter's anticipated dividends fall in between the projected values for the second and fourth quarters. And since the outlook for the index' dividends in all quarters has been improving, we would have at least expected to see it close the gap between the second and f ..read more
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Campbell's Tomato Soup Price Resumes Inflationary Rise
Political Calculations
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1w ago
Inflationary price increases have resumed for Campbell's Tomato Soup. Our monthly survey of the prices at which ten major grocery retailers are selling an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup indicates upward price movement has resumed after stabilizing during the latter half of 2023. The changes we're observing are significant for U.S. consumers because Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) has produced and sold its condensed tomato soup product in this standard 10.75 fluid ounce can continuously since January 1898. Because of that inherent characteristic, its price is not affec ..read more
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A Sudoku Secret Pattern in Plain Sight
Political Calculations
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1w ago
Solving Sudoku puzzles has become a very popular pastime around the world since the Times of London began publishing them twenty years ago. Although the puzzle itself has been around for much longer, it was its appearance in the Times that prompted its popularity to explode. The puzzle itself can be described as a kind of simplified crossword puzzle, but with numbers. And maybe not so simple. Sudoku.com sets out the basic rules: Sudoku is played on a grid of 9 x 9 spaces. Within the rows and columns are 9 “squares” (made up of 3 x 3 spaces). Each row, column and square (9 spaces each) needs ..read more
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CO2 Emissions Rising Rapidly as China, India Boost Coal Consumption
Political Calculations
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2w ago
The first quarter of 2024 has come and gone. Along the way, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has been rising at one of the fastest clips on record. That observation is a good sign of the extent to which China, the worlds's biggest consumer of coal and the world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide emissions, is pushing to grow its economy. But China isn't alone in increasing its emissions at such a fast rate. India is also boosting its consumption of coal and its emissions of carbon dioxide to power its economic growth. Together, the two most populous nations in ..read more
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US-China Trade Decline May Have Hit a Bottom
Political Calculations
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2w ago
The total value of goods exchanged between the United States and China rose for the first month since October 2022. That month marked the beginning of a serious deterioration of trade between the two countries following President Biden's action to restrict the export of advanced semiconductor technology from the U.S. to China. The fallout from President Biden's anti-free trade policies has been worse than the losses that occurred during former President Trump's 2018 tariff war with China prior to the coronavirus pandemic's negative effect on trade. We measure that loss in trade with the trai ..read more
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