Discussion: The lower heights will soon move out of NJ. A series of ridging will then build over NJ for much of the foreseeable forecast period (through next weekend). An upper low departs the lower Mid-Atlantic US Mon-Tues. Then a shallow and progressive trough/upper-low brings a rainy disturbance Tuesday night through most of Wednesday. We see some chillier conditions behind that system (for Thursday) but then we start a nice gradual build into 70s statewide by the end of the weekend. In addition to tonight’s, Thursday and Friday nights should be the last of the frost advisories for a while ..read more

Discussion: The only upper-level feature jumping out at me is next Wednesday-Thursday in the form of a cut-off low/trough. Otherwise, it looks like a bunch of mundane and zonal flow with slight deviations + and – for height anomalies. For this weekend into next week, we have a strong trough but it’s centered over E Canada. NJ is just to the S of it so will not get in on the colder air like E Canada and parts of NE US. After that the pattern looks to progress warmer further into spring. For tonight (Friday), we have a very weak front pushing through which most model guidance suggests minimal ra ..read more

Discussion: I’ll put the routine weekend outlook out tomorrow but wanted to discuss an early weekend expectation as well as where we’re going in the future. There’s nothing major showing but I’m sensing many of you are becoming curious about outdoor conditions as we approach the warmer season. Today is a good example of what’s known as a Back Door Cold Front (BDCF). As we know, areas of high pressure produce synoptic-scale anti-cyclonic (clockwise) flow around their center, in the Northern Hemisphere. Well, today we have high pressure over New England (to the N of NJ) which means NJ is subject ..read more

Discussion: The upper-levels should stay in a positive anomaly configuration for geopotential heights through this week and weekend. That means we won’t be turning cold. But since the pattern will be slightly zonal, we could turn chilly for a bit. After a chilly Saturday, yesterday (Sunday) and today (Monday) were absolute aces outside. Tomorrow should be nice as well but then rain moves in for Wednesday-Thursday in the form of a slow-moving warm front. We get a break Friday followed by more possible rain in the weekend from a cold front and possible coastal low. I will say, that this coming w ..read more

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough will push through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US Friday-Saturday. We experienced the warm sector and frontal rain from a surface low riding the front of this trough yesterday into this morning. Tonight through Saturday morning, we’ll experience the trailing upper-level low within the trough and all the fun precip/lifting that provides which is mainly targeting NNJ/CNJ over SNJ. But everyone is on the hook for additional isolated showers tonight (Friday) through Saturday morning/afternoon. Saturday and Saturday night should be the coldest ..read more

Discussion: Another synoptic storm system will bring rain today through Friday, possibly Saturday. But it looks pretty good after that. Let’s break it down. First, this will not be a significant rain and wind event like last week. For this event, we’re looking at .75-1.25 inches of total rainfall, not 3+. Wind gusts should commonly reach 25-35mph across NJ with maybe a few 40-45mph periods closer to the ocean, not 50-60mph+. Coastal flooding should be held to the minor category, not minor-to-moderate. So a much less impactful event, more in the category of nuisance than hazardous. For those fa ..read more

Discussion: I imagine there will be a few people calling out with “stomach bugs” tomorrow (Tuesday) as temps surge into the 70s for most of NJ with ample sunshine. Today (Monday) is a transitional day between the colder/rainy pattern and the approaching milder pattern…but you can feel what’s coming. Today and tomorrow are warm and dry from the return flow of weak high pressure near Bermuda. A Canadian low will then hand its cold frontal boundary to another low tracking through the C US in the form of a rainy warm front. This should push more clouds and rain into NJ Wednesday through Friday aft ..read more

Discussion: The upper low is still meandering off coastal New England (Gulf of Maine area) placing New Jersey on its SW side. We therefore have NW flow with lower geopotential heights and unsettled conditions. As long as we are within proximity to this upper low, there are rain shower chances since less lift is required to saturate moisture to the point of condensation. Rain chances today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) are very minute however with just isolated showers…nothing like the rain earlier this week when we were E of the upper low in the thick of the sfc low precip and frontal bound ..read more

Discussion: Another slug of precipitation is just finishing up in NJ and departing out to sea. We should see a small lull this evening before more returns overnight into tomorrow (Wednesday). Tomorrow will likely feature the heaviest rainfall and stormiest conditions of this week. Between tonight and tomorrow night, another low will track from the SE US right up the east coast. It should literally ride the NJ coast tomorrow as a sub-990mb low. Since there is a strong upper-low nearby (trailing the surface low), we’re going to see a cold injection. It should be cold enough to put most of NJ und ..read more

Discussion: An upper-level low will move into the region by Tuesday/Wednesday and meander around the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US through this weekend. It will keep NJ wet through at least Thursday night, possibly Friday. The stormiest conditions should occur Wednesday PM just ahead/during a cold front. We then see another transient cold period behind that cold front but clearing in time for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday both have a shot at hitting 60 like this past weekend. We just need to get through the 40s/50s and rain this week. There’s a small chance for wintry precipitation this Wednesd ..read more