From next month I will no longer send you promotional emails and I will no longer take on new clients. This is your last chance to subscribe, I will continue to produce the analysis for my members but I will not accept new clients. I have done the job for many years and now I feel it is time to concentrate on managing money. I have always believed in my long term forecast and those who follow me will be rewarded. We are entering a period full of opportunities, the stock market will go down for several years then it will go up. Money will be made on the way down, then a multi-year bull market w ..read more

  I was looking to buy Copper after a pullback for wave (e) but this pullback did not go very far. In a triangle [(a),(b),(c),(d),(e)] wave (e) should end near the lower line , near 4.25. I think the war in Ukraine caused copper to rally immediately without a proper pullback. Copper made a new high above the top of wave 3, this suggests wave 5 up is underway. The current pullback is probably the second wave inside wave 5, wave 5 will be in five waves. The target is near 5.70 ..read more

I remain long gold.  That was the chart I sent to members of my position trading strategy on 26 January.  Gold is going higher but it can be volatile when the Fed is hawkish.  To get my latest view on gold join the position trading strategy here : e-Yield - Position Trading  ..read more

The S&P 500 did not decline enough to change investors' mood, we are still in a mania and in this situation people will buy early. The BTI has been rising during the decline, a rising BTI means sentiment is bullish. This behaviour is an indication the bulls have regained control and the decline probably ended on 24 January. Alternatively the bounce could be a fourth wave inside wave (c) of the decline, in this case there is another leg down before the rally resumes. However, this is now low probability because the rally is a bit large for a fourth wave. And if it rallies further it will ov ..read more

We continue to see the Nasdaq in correction mode, tech stocks are not doing well right when yields rally.  This sell off in tech stocks has affected the S&P 500 but the Dow Jones and the FTSE 100 are doing better because these two indexes are not sensitive to tech stocks.   The 10Y yield rallied near 1.8% it is difficult to know where the 10Y yield rally will stop.  Will it stop at 2% or 3% ? or higher? There is a wide range where the rally could end, the higher the more pressure on stocks and gold. My guess is that it will top between 2% and 2.5%, yields are back where the ..read more

Chances are gold will decline further before the next major advance starts.  I believe gold is tracing out a triangle [A,B,C,D,E].  On 15 December Gold declined to 1753, was that decline wave E? That is the question right now because if the decline was wave E gold will rally to new highs. In a triangle [A,B,C,D,E] wave E is the final wave of the consolidation. After the consoldation gold should rally to new highs. This decline ended high, you can see wave C ended near the bottom of wave A, therefore I would expect wave E to end low too, this is why I think wave E down is not complet ..read more

Technical analysis is not an exact science, sometimes it is difficult to identify the pattern. The same can be said about Elliott wave analysis, sometimes the pattern is not clear. In this situation I rely on other indicators like the BTI to guide me. The BTI is a sentiment indicator used to confirm the trend, when it goes up the FTSE 100 is likely to go up (trend is up), when it goes down the FTSE 100 is more likely to go down. In November I was short FTSE 100 but the Elliott wave pattern became unclear. I was not sure whether to keep my short or not. When the BTI turned down on 17 November t ..read more

Having spent many years in the markets I have come to the conclusion that long term trading (or investing) has produced better returns than short term or intraday trading. I have already explained in previous articles why it is difficult to succeed with a short term or intraday strategy. These strategies involve leverage and the use of a stop loss, both are negative for profitability. Long term investing on the other hand does not use leverage or stop losses. What many people don't know is that you can achieve very good returns without leverage. For example my long term portfolio (without leve ..read more

Stock markets continue to rally but the rally is not the start of a long advance, it is part of the final subdivisions of a terminal pattern. When markets are near the top sometimes the final move up does not materialise, therefore an increasing number of investors are on the edge ready to sell. As soon as some bearish news emerges they sell, this happened in September and the S&P 500 dropped more than 5% in a month. That was a warning the rally is tired. I suspect something else will cause a correction, probably the rise in bond yields. If you observe commodities and cryptos, they are ral ..read more

I have helped many traders over the years and I know what they want, but what they want is not always the best option. What most traders want is to trade intraday or short term with a tight stop loss. However, statistics show that focussing on intraday moves or short term moves lasting a few days is not as reliable as focussing on longer term moves lasting weeks or months. There is too much noise, too many manipulations by the banks, the politicians ...in the very short term. On a day the market can produce a weird move, take all the stops but nothing has changed. Over the next week or two the ..read more