Last time, we introduced the SGX data in the SpreadCharts app and briefly described the history of commodity trading in Singapore. Today, we will take a closer look at the most interesting futures contract from trader’s perspective – the Rubber futures. Before moving on, I must clarify that there are actually two rubber futures contracts traded on the SGX – the TSR20 and RSS3. Both are made from natural latex harvested from rubber trees. Technically Specified Rubber (TSR) is liquid latex which has been allowed to congeal naturally and reformed into blocks that can be used in tyre manufacturing ..read more

I personally consider the signals generated by our AI model to be the cornerstone of our software. While you can find commodity signals elsewhere, they are all based solely on seasonality. As we’ve explained many times, using just seasonality is like driving by looking only in the rear-view mirror. Not a good idea. I decided to do better. Not because it is easy, but because it is hard, as John F. Kennedy said. I developed a complex machine learning model capable of generating signals from various types of data, not just seasonality. That was in 2019. Apart from some bug fixes, I haven’t touche ..read more

While we’ve pointed out several tactical opportunities throughout the year, our strategic stance has largely been passive. Essentially, we’ve consistently emphasized that the best asset from risk/reward perspective was the US Dollar. We also revealed the best ways to capitalize on this opportunity. Firstly, it was the short on the Chinese Yuan (long on the USDCNH chart below). Then, we suggested shorting the Canadian Dollar in the summer. And finally we nailed the top on Euro when it hit 1.12 and informed our premium SpreadCharts users about the short opportunity in the Polish Zloty. We are ..read more

If you trade Lumber futures, you might have noticed that no new contracts have been added for some time. That’s not a mistake. CME Group decided to discontinue the current contract and replace it with a new one. The old Random Length Lumber Futures with the ticker LB is being replaced by new Lumber Futures with the ticker LBR.     What was the motivation for this switch? Well, you can see it below. The fierce volatility of lumber prices and frequent limit up/down days over the past few years were most likely symptoms of thin liquidity.     New lumber futures aim to improv ..read more

More than a week ago, I posted this cryptic tweet. Although it was about gold, the same can be applied to any other physical commodity. But it is especially true for metals like copper or silver. #Gold price is being held up by strong demand, not constrained supply. Think about it for a moment. Will explain its implications in the next research piece.#GC_F $GLD $GDX $GDXJ $NUGT $DUST https://t.co/7uNjJsEbpj — SpreadCharts.com (@SpreadChartsCom) March 10, 2023   Supply vs. demand for silver The point is that industrial use cases for metals involve pretty complex processes which are inher ..read more

We saved many of you from the bear market last year. Of course, everybody now agrees on how obvious the selloff was. Albeit, it was totally different at the top. S&P 500 going over 5000 was consensus back then. Anybody even slightly bearish was dismissed as permabear. Well, we’re no permabears as you saw over the past decade. Yet, we were one of the few out there who were really bearish at the end of 2021. And you benefited tremendously. Here is the proof – the excerpt from our New Year’s outlook that we published last year on January 3rd, 2022. However, the sentiment changed over 2022. I ..read more

Is there anything exciting about interest rates? They are boring and trade through complex derivatives that are hard to understand. While I’m no expert on rates, I know enough to understand it’s absolutely critical to be familiar with at least the basics. Why? Well, because the rates are not just one among many factors affecting the markets. They are THE most important factor. Interest rates determine the value of money, affecting everything from stocks, bonds to commodities. Here is the proof. The chart below compares the price of the S&P 500 with the expected Fed Funds rate at the end of ..read more

The SpreadCharts app is getting better every year. In 2022, we focused on rewriting the internal database responsible for storing market data and materially improving our data quality. After cleaning the old data, we proceeded to obtain data for new markets. That was a long-promised goal, and this year we delivered. We added data for new energy markets, softs, currencies, indices, and even crypto. Some of this data is unique and was really hard to get, like the Oman crude oil. Besides software, we guided you through the bear market flawlessly this year. Our premium research not only warned you ..read more

The crypto mania is clearly over, as the rising interest rates have popped this bubble. Nevertheless, cryptocurrencies are most likely here to stay. Despite their little to no usefulness in real life, they are popular trading vehicles. We are reflecting this trend by introducing Bitcoin and Ether futures data to our platform. They are: CME Bitcoin CME Micro Bitcoin CME Ether You can find them in the SpreadCharts app under the new Crypto group. You might wonder what’s the purpose of these futures contracts when people can easily trade cryptocurrencies on exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, or ..read more

Our users in the past repeatedly requested this group of data. It took some time, but now we deliver. We are adding three soft commodities from Intercontinental Exchange Europe. They are: ICE White Sugar ICE Robusta Coffee ICE London Cocoa You can find them in the SpreadCharts app under the Softs group. As I stated in our research many times, I don’t know anything about softs. Therefore, I do not have any commentary for you. It’s up to you to explore the data. One thing I would like to highlight is that we have Commitments of Traders data for all these three commodities. And that’s cool. Y ..read more