A numerical ocean model is a computer programme representing the equations of motion (momentum, conservation of mass and thermodynamics) for the ocean. The model stores each of the physical properties of the ocean (temperatures, salinities and currents) on a three-dimensional grid, writes Ana Aguiar. Ocean models store physical  properties such as salinity, temperature and currents on a three-dimensional grid. Picture: Adobe Stock Smaller ocean features can be resolved by using a finer grid with more points, but this requires more computational power. The model evolves these physical prop ..read more

Our planet is covered in large part by water. Historically, the ocean was referred to as four oceans (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic) or five if you included the Southern Ocean (around Antarctica).   For the ocean science community, it is now accepted there is only one global ocean- and many basins with individual names – says Christine Pequignet, a Met Office senior ocean forecasting scientist.   There are scientific reasons for this, and important societal consequences. Of course, if you swim off the coast of Hawaii after a lifetime of swimming in the water around Scotland, it w ..read more

Meteorological spring kicked off with a mild and wet month of weather for the UK, with southern areas particularly wet compared to average.   Although it’s felt like it hasn’t stopped raining for many, no national records have been broken and March 2024 will go down as a wet and dull month, according to provisional statistics from the Met Office.   Wetter than average  The UK experienced 27% more rainfall than an average March, with much of this concentrated in the south. A number of counties saw at least double the amount of rainfall they would expect for the month, includ ..read more

The Met Office launches this year’s Pollen Forecast today (Friday 22 March) which will run until mid-September. One in five people in the UK suffer from hay fever, meaning spring can be the start of watering eyes, runny noses and keeping a keen eye on the pollen forecast, which is now available and provides a look at the pollen amounts and types in the air for the next five days. This February was the warmest on record for England and Wales and winter too has followed this wet and warm pattern. This has an influence on the pollen season ahead. Yolanda Clewlow is the Met Office’s Relationships ..read more

Today is the United Nations International Day of Forests, and in this blog post we explore the importance of this work. The Climate and Plant Biosecurity Climate Service, funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), is a collaboration between the Met Office’s Vegetation-Climate Interactions team, Defra’s Plant Health Risk and Horizon Scanning team, the University of Exeter, Fera Science, the University of Warwick, Forest Research and The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. Since 2006 the non-native and invasive Oak Processionary Moth has been spreading across England and ..read more

For the first time since records began in the mid 20th century , this extended winter period (November to March) is the first in our observational records to see three Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. Met Office research suggests the likelihood of having three SSW events in one winter period is just a one in 250-year chance, although it is more likely to happen during an El Niño winter, such as this winter. The record of SSW events goes back to the 1950s with the introduction of radiosonde balloons which are used to take observations high in the stratosphere on a routine basis ..read more

The Amazon is a complex dynamical system with extraordinarily diverse terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems which are home to more than 10% of Earth’s biodiversity, as well as 40 million people. It is one of the most critical elements of the Earth’s climate system, with the forest acting as a giant “air-conditioner”, lowering land-surface temperatures and generating rainfall in the region. as well as exerting a strong influence on the atmosphere and circulation patterns, both regionally and globally. It also acts as an important terrestrial carbon sink, absorbing more carbon from the atmosphere t ..read more

Our weather is notoriously changeable – that is partly what makes it one of the nation’s talking points. But peering through the statistics a striking pattern emerges: one where the weather oscillates abruptly between different and contrasting phases lasting for a while before the next phase in the sequence begins to dominate. Let’s look at January’s conditions: the average across the month isn’t headline grabbing. But the pattern back-and-forth between weather types is remarkable.  The year began warm, but within the first five days it had transitioned to a notably cold and dry period ..read more

January 2024 brought a month of contrasts to the UK weather, with three named storms, a significant spell of cold, wintry weather and finally a new UK daily maximum temperature record for January. Temperatures and rainfall amounts have varied throughout the month, with mild and wet weather interrupted by a cold and dry spell from the second week of January, albeit with some significant snow for northern areas of the UK. Overall, this means that the average mean temperature for the UK for January 2024 is near average according to provisional Met Office figures. UK mean temperatures ended the m ..read more

Throughout autumn and winter there have been a number of sightings of the Northern Lights, or the aurora borealis, in the UK. As 2024 continues, the question for many space weather experts is when we’ll see a peak in the Sun’s activity as part of this solar cycle.   The auroras on Earth, which are most commonly seen over high polar latitudes but can often spread south to be visible over parts of the UK, are chiefly influenced by geomagnetic storms which originate from activity on the Sun.   Space weather forecasters, like those who work at the Met Office Space Weather Operations ..read more