Why China is Cyber-Threat #1 – and What To Do About It
The Cipher Brief
by Ethan Masucol
1d ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE — When U.S. and British officials filed charges of cyberespionage and imposed sanctions against China Monday, for a campaign which they said had hit millions of people in the two countries, it was only the latest salvo in a cyber war that has intensified sharply over the past year.  The U.S. and U.K. called the group of hackers “Advanced Persistent Threat 31” – or “APT31” – and said it was run by China’s Ministry of State Security. Officials said the APT31 campaign had gone on for more than a decade, with targets including members of the U.S. Congress and the Britis ..read more
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What is Putin’s Role in the Terrorist Attack in Russia?
The Cipher Brief
by Suzanne Kelly
2d ago
OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — On the night of March 22, four masked individuals armed with automatic weapons entered the Crocus City Hall in the Russian capital of Moscow and opened fire a crowd of individuals, killing over a 133, wounding many more and sending hundreds of people fleeing from the scene of this terrorist attack.  After the incident, the terrorists reportedly fled the scene in a white Renault sedan and were suspected of fleeing into a wooded area on the outskirts of Moscow. By March 23, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that Russian authorities had deta ..read more
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In Taiwan, the Calendar – and Preparations – for a Chinese Invasion
The Cipher Brief
by Ethan Masucol
2d ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — While wars rage in Ukraine and Gaza, the past week has seen a spike in tensions over a global conflict that may be years away – or never come at all: A war over Taiwan. Last Thursday Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it had detected more than thirty Chinese military aircraft near Taiwan in a 24-hour window, the second-highest figure this year. Taiwan’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that China has built “enormous” military bases on three islands surrounding Taiwan’s main outpost in the South China Sea. And while forecasts vary widely as to whether and when C ..read more
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After Moscow Terror, Kremlin Wages Mass Disinformation Campaign
The Cipher Brief
by Tom Nagorski
2d ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS — Along with expressions of sympathy for the victims and pledges to bring the perpetrators to justice, Russia’s response to Friday’s deadly attack on a concert hall has been an across-the-board campaign of disinformation. The Kremlin and its surrogates spent the weekend suggesting – with no evidence – that Ukrainians or Americans, or both, were to blame for the worst terrorist attack in Russia in two decades. As soon as Saturday morning, certain facts had emerged about the raid on the Crocus Concert Hall on Moscow’s outskirts: At least 137 people were dead and m ..read more
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The Tragedy in Moscow Isn’t Over Yet, says CIA’s former Chief of Central Eurasia Division
The Cipher Brief
by Suzanne Kelly
2d ago
OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – The death toll from last week’s terrorist attack inside a concert hall in a suburban Moscow neighborhood is now at least 133 people in what is one of the worst terrorist attacks to occur during the presidency of Vladimir Putin. The Crocus Theater and attached shopping mall were attacked by a number of armed gunmen, who shot the security guards and then opened fire on the sold-out crowd at the theater. The theater and mall were also set on fire, possibly using Molotov cocktails carried by the attackers.  In the confusion that followed the slow Russian securi ..read more
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When Conspiracy Theories Get Dangerous
The Cipher Brief
by Ethan Masucol
6d ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE – Conspiracy theories may have been around since humans began telling stories but today, the volume and spread of such theories is amplified by technology including social media and artificial intelligence. The dangers of conspiracy theories may also be spreading as large segments of populations embrace ideas and stories that have no basis in fact and in the worst cases, can lead some people to consider violence against phantom enemies.   Last week, The Cipher Brief brought together CIA veterans and a journalist who has studied the impact of conspiracy theories for ..read more
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Report on Iran’s Nuclear Program Stokes Alarm – and Disagreement Over How to Respond
The Cipher Brief
by Tom Nagorski
1w ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been a diplomatic concern for decades, but recent revelations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), compounded by Iran’s role in the protracted conflict in Gaza, have heightened alarm over the regime’s progress toward building a nuclear weapons arsenal. The latest IAEA report found that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has grown precipitously, that the agency’s ability to monitor the program has been severely compromised, and experts say that over the past several years the time Iran would need to create weapons-g ..read more
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White House Top AI Advisor – On Disinformation, China Threats, and Future of War
The Cipher Brief
by Tom Nagorski
1w ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – The Cipher Brief CEO and Publisher Suzanne Kelly spoke Wednesday with Ben Buchanan, advisor to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Biden administration’s Special Advisor for Artificial Intelligence (AI). Their conversation was part of the Cyber Initiatives Group summit, and it covered the opportunities and challenges of AI, threats to the nation’s infrastructure and the integrity of elections, and what the White House is most focused on when it comes to the world of AI.  This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.&n ..read more
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Ukraine Digs in and Hopes For the Best in “Spring Defensive”
The Cipher Brief
by Tom Nagorski
1w ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – Ukraine is spending $800 million to build trenches and multilayered fortifications along a 600-mile front line in the eastern part of the country to stop advancing Russian troops. While Russia looks to capitalize on recent battlefield gains, Ukraine isn’t planning for fresh ground offensives of its own; it’s planning what might be called a spring defensive. What a difference a year makes. “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of ..read more
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Fighting Disinformation in the AI Era
The Cipher Brief
by Tom Nagorski
1w ago
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS – A decade ago, the term “disinformation” was rarely in the national security conversation; today it’s a top concern for virtually all branches of government, and the threat of state-backed disinformation campaigns against the U.S. rated multiple mentions in the 2024 Threat Assessment Report, which was released last week.  The report forecast that Russia and China would both use disinformation to influence the November U.S. elections. “Russia’s influence actors have adapted their efforts to better hide their hand, and may use new technologies, such as gener ..read more
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