Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
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Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
2y ago
MENA Analysis: Use of UAVs by non-state actors to grow in scope, potentially pose greater risk to civilian infrastructure in coming year
Executive Summary:
As part of a global phenomenon, there has been a recent increase in the scope and frequency of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks by non-state actors in the Middle East. This trend has most manifestly been spearheaded by Iran, which has strategically developed UAV technologies and transferred arms and knowledge to its regional allies and proxies.
UAV capabilities will continue to be disseminated to Iran-backed groups in the region, par ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
2y ago
Executive Summary
2020 witnessed a surge in large-scale protest movements, despite the imposition of lockdowns.
The implementation of COVID-19 restrictions on gatherings, including demonstrations, led to a surge in anti-government and anti-police sentiment, increasing the associated risk at demonstrations, as well as the prevalence of more extremist activists at protests.
While these restrictions are being lifted regionwide, the potential for unrest at protests is expected to remain elevated.
Controversial protest groups are expected to capitalize on heightened anti-government sentiments, i ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
3y ago
Executive Summary
There has been a gradual decrease in the number of attacks conducted by Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Wilayat Sinai in the North Sinai Governorate in 2021. This indicates that the Sunni jihadist militant group is coming under increasing pressure, both in terms of its ranks and capabilities.
There has been a gradual shift in Wilayat Sinai’s targeting of local Bedouin tribesmen perceived to be collaborating with the Egyptian Armed Forces (EAAF) in North Sinai in 2021. This is liable to further alienate the local population and diminish the militant group’s recruitment base.
A ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
3y ago
Executive Summary
On February 18, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune dissolved the People’s National Assembly (APN) and called for early legislative elections, slated for June 12. The announcement came ahead of the two-year anniversary of the anti-government protest movement on February 22.
This measure was aimed at appeasing the public’s anti-government sentiments. However, protesters will perceive the upcoming elections as a means for former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s allies to remain in power, which will therefore result in a low voter turnout.
While interdependent “Hirak” candidates ar ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
3y ago
This report was written by Sanjana Parashar (MENA Intelligence Manager) and Swathi Nagesh (Levant region specialist)
And reviewed by Darren Cohen (MENA Senior Intelligence Manager and Levant region specialist) and Oded Berkowitz (Deputy Chief Intelligence Officer)
Executive Summary
Tensions between Turkey and Western state actors have increased over recent years due to various geopolitical and security issues. Ankara’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy and the shift in its strategic alliances is the result of both developments in the domestic political sphere and the waning presence of ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
4y ago
This report was written by:
Darren Cohen – Senior Intelligence Manager, Middle East and North Africa
And reviewed by:
Oded Berkowitz – Deputy Chief Intelligence Officer
Executive Summary
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and current Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz reached a coalition agreement in April, which stipulates that Israel can apply sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, in coordination with the US administration, from July 1.
The different and currently unknown versions and timing of the potential application of sovereignty, also known as annexati ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
4y ago
Executive Summary
China announced on May 21 that it would bypass the Hong Kong Legislative Council (LegCo) to pass the “Hong Kong national security law.”
The timing of the law is likely aimed at taking advantage of the distraction offered by the COVID-19 pandemic, limiting the resurgence of street protests.
The legislation will act as a base for increased curbs on freedom of speech, activism.
Increased control by Beijing on Hong Kong’s judicial affairs will worsen tensions between the US, China.
Civil unrest will increase in the near term, however, the implementation of restrictions will damp ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
4y ago
This report was written by:
Shagun Nayar – MAX Security’s Levant intelligence specialist
And reviewed by:
Darren Cohen – Senior Intelligence Manager of MENA & Oded Berkowitz – Deputy Chief Intelligence Officer
Executive Summary
From October 2019, a nationwide anti-government protest movement has emerged in Iraq, much of it directly and indirectly related to Iran, which led to former Prime Minister (PM) Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation in November 2019.
Tehran’s influence on the political and security situation in Iraq has played a major factor in the instabil ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
4y ago
This report was written by:
Shagun Nayar – MAX Security’s Levant intelligence specialist
And reviewed by:
Darren Cohen – Senior Intelligence Manager of MENA & Oded Berkowitz – Deputy Chief Intelligence Officer
Executive Summary
From October 2019, a nationwide anti-government protest movement has emerged in Iraq, much of it directly and indirectly related to Iran, which led to former Prime Minister (PM) Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation in November 2019.
Tehran’s influence on the political and security situation in Iraq has played a major factor in the instabil ..read more
Max Security » Geopolitical Analysis
4y ago
Executive Summary
Since the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions in February-March, multiple countries across Europe reported a significant drop in home burglaries, violent robberies, and thefts. Meanwhile the region saw an increase in burglaries at commercial establishments, theft of medical supplies, as well as racial and domestic violence.
The expected economic downturn from the lockdown will likely lead to a return to pre-crisis rates or an increase in robberies and other violent crimes and in anti-establishment sentiments while presenting human traffickers new opportunities in the long-t ..read more