The Philippines Mulls a Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan
Geopolitical Monitor
by Mark Soo
1y ago
Filipino senators have been voicing support for the possibility of signing a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with Japan, a country that once occupied the Philippines during World War II. If such an agreement is signed, it would represent the third deal to be signed by the Philippines, following similar VFAs with the United States and Australia. What makes this time different is the significance of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), which is known for its regional presence and, in particular, its active involvement in overseas disaster relief operations. Such an agreement would be benefic ..read more
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China: Dismal Trade Data Hints at Downturn
Geopolitical Monitor
by Geopolitical Monitor
1y ago
China’s trade data surprised on the downside in November, recording an 8.7% year-on-year drop. The number represents a steep acceleration from the 0.3% contraction in October, and altogether marks the worse performance on the trade front since February 2020, when the national economy was being wracked by the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The numbers are notable in that they reflect a sharp downturn on the demand side, and particularly in some of China’s most important markets. The United States is the case-in-point; exports there dropped by just over a quarter year-on-year in November ..read more
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Whither Germany’s Defense Modernization?
Geopolitical Monitor
by Geopolitical Monitor
1y ago
The outbreak of the Ukraine war went off like a bomb in the German foreign policy establishment, invalidating decades of a business-first approach that effectively placed German industry at the mercy of Russian energy blackmail. Amidst the uncertainty and danger of this Zeitendwende (watershed moment), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a radical overhaul of German defense policy: Ukraine would be supplied with weapons, Germany would become more active and assertive in European security affairs, and most importantly, the Bundeswehr would receive some €100 billion in special funding to mode ..read more
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The Ukraine Peace Proposal: Shadows of Versailles
Geopolitical Monitor
by Brian Patrick Bolger
1y ago
A change of seasons brings a change of perspective. With St Martin appearing on a white horse to signal the first snows in central and eastern Europe, with the mid- terms behind us and the cost to the West growing like a US budget deficit, the talk has turned to peace. There is a peace deal on the table for the Russians (details below); however, I doubt they will take it, despite the Western media telling us the war is lost for the Russians. For the Russian spirit, and its endless cold horizon over the steppe, there is no doubt echoes of Tolstoy’s epigram – ‘The strongest of all warriors are t ..read more
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China-Africa Relations in Review
Geopolitical Monitor
by Thierry Pairault
1y ago
“China did this,” “the Chinese did that.” There is an essentialization of China and Chinese actors that hinders our understanding of China-Africa relations – whether to praise or demonize them – as it lumps a multiplicity of approaches, as well as actors, into a fantasized strategy. Hence, the need to use the plural to talk about these Chinese presences in Africa.   Chinese Actors in Africa To begin with, there are institutional actors who may clash within the embassies themselves. There are divergences between officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who subordinate the commercial ..read more
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Can Putin Pull Belarus into Ukraine War?
Geopolitical Monitor
by Geopolitical Monitor
1y ago
Amid grinding attrition and freezing weather in the Ukraine war, the geopolitical plot continues to thicken in Belarus. The state has figured prominently in the drama of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though not necessarily in the ways that Vladimir Putin might have hoped. Belarusian territory was used to launch the ill-fated northern front meant to capture Kyiv in the early days of the war; it also has continued to house Russian planes and missiles used in strikes against Ukraine. Finally, there have been periodic reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside both Russian and Ukrainian force ..read more
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Qatar Uneasy amid Iran Protests
Geopolitical Monitor
by Julian McBride
1y ago
The “women, life, freedom” movement in Iran has been prominent in international headlines this autumn, with protests spreading across the nation. And though the murder of Masha Amini served as a catalyst for the movement, public anger has been steadily building up in the theocracy for decades. The protests aren’t limited to Iran; rather, the Iranian diaspora have also held major rallies in North America and Europe, and have pushed to raise awareness in the Middle East as well. Nonetheless, some MENA nations have been reluctant to broadcast the protests, the most notable example being Qatar, wh ..read more
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Debt & Downturn Complicate ECB’s Inflation Fight
Geopolitical Monitor
by Geopolitical Monitor
1y ago
ECB officials must have greeted the latest inflation numbers with a sigh of relief. Overall, euro zone inflation slowed for the first time in one-and-a-half years, dropping to 10% year-on-year in November, which is below both the 10.4% median estimate and the 10.6% rate from the previous month. But on the member-state level, the November results are a mixed bag. The Baltics all hovered over 20% in November, recording minor decreases from the month before. Major economies like Germany and Italy both saw their double-digit rates modestly decrease, from 11.6 to 11.3% and 12.6 to 12.5% respectivel ..read more
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Democracy in Armenia: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
Geopolitical Monitor
by Aleksandar Srbinovski
1y ago
April, 2018; Armenians demonstrate on the streets. The chief goal of the demonstrators is to put an end to Serzh Sargsyan’s rule, which has been autocratic for a long time, and to pave a way for a democratic future. On April 23, Sargsyan opts to resign in the face of public pressure. To commemorate the Armenian people’s victory in their fight for a democratic future, around 300,000 people showed up for a rally on May 2 in Yerevan. A democratic and prosperous Armenia was what the people wanted to see as their one and only aspiration. Four years have passed now, but a democratic and prosperous A ..read more
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The Impact of Designating Russia a Terrorist State
Geopolitical Monitor
by Alexander Brotman
1y ago
While symbolic and non-binding, the decision by the European Parliament (EP) to formally recognise Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism is a significant development since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began back in February. Given foreign policy remains a core competency of the 27 individual EU member states, national parliaments would also have to make such a declaration for it to carry more weight. So far, the parliaments of Poland and the Baltic states have led the way in informing the EU’s approach on the terror designation, as they have all declared Russia to be a state sponso ..read more
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