Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. Negativity against LGBTQ+ and gender equality symbols is escalating across Western European countries, including those at the forefront of sexual modernism. Drawing on data from Spain, this paper theorizes and finds that state-sponsored LGBTQ+ symbols receive significantly more negativity than other aspects of LGBTQ+ issues related to general and specific attitudes toward formal rights. The negativity is primarily explained by support for Vox, a radical right-wing party, and age. The study provides insights into the complexities o ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. Communicating the “97%’’ scientific consensus has been the centerpiece of the effort to persuade climate skeptics. Still, this strategy may not work well for those who mistrust climate scientists, to begin with. We examine how the American public—Republicans in particular—respond when provided with a relatively detailed causal explanation summarizing why scientists have concluded that human activities are responsible for climate change. Based on a preregistered survey experiment (N = 3007), we assessed the effectiveness of detaile ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. Why are there so few working-class women in politics? While white-collar representatives dominate legislatures in general, the deficit of working-class members is particularly pronounced among female politicians. To answer this question, this study examines the influence of class and gender in voter evaluation. Through the cross-country comparison of conjoint experiments in the U.S. and the U.K., we find that working-class backgrounds disadvantage women candidates in a way that they do not disadvantage their male counterparts. Vot ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. Large-scale text analysis has grown rapidly as a method in political science and beyond. To date, text-as-data methods rely on large volumes of human-annotated training examples, which place a premium on researcher resources. However, advances in large language models (LLMs) may make automated annotation increasingly viable. This paper tests the performance of GPT-4 across a range of scenarios relevant for analysis of political text. We compare GPT-4 coding with human expert coding of tweets and news articles across four variables ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. In October 2016, the Colombian electorate narrowly rejected in a plebiscite the final agreement to end the conflict with the longest-running armed insurgency in the Western Hemisphere, the FARC. The plebiscite’s result provides a unique opportunity to assess dynamics in civil conflict termination preferences. I exploit the unexpected victory of the No vote, observed during the AmericasBarometer fieldwork, to estimate the effect of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the conflict generated by the outcome of the plebiscite. The ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. Despite their ubiquity, few have used traffic camera networks for social science research. Using 1,312,977 images collected from 768 London-based cameras leading up to the 2015 UK general election, this study not only demonstrates how traffic camera data can be used to effectively measure same-day turnout, but we also provide ways such data can be used to assess political behavior more broadly. Such automated enumeration is especially important in countries where official results are only returned for the current election, making ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. Do citizens reveal their valid preferences when asked about a potential foreign threat? This study presents the results of two list experiments implemented in Taiwan, a democratic and independently ruled island that leaders in China have long vowed to reunify with the mainland. Our two experiments—conducted in March 2019 and September 2021—focus on the percentage of Taiwanese who perceive China as a “friend” and those who regard China as an “enemy.” The findings reveal that, first, the proportion of Taiwanese citizens who harbored ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. All over the world, a very large number of elections take place concurrently with other elections for representatives in different government tiers. A crucial question for understanding electoral outcomes in those elections is the existence of electoral spillovers or coattail effects. Causal identification of coattail effects is challenging because popularity shocks typically affect parties in both concurrent elections. This paper exploits a quasi-experiment—the ban of a party in only one of the concurrent elections—to estimate co ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not only an unprecedented cross-continental infrastructure investment program, it is also a key pillar of China’s foreign policy. The Chinese government seeks to tie BRI member states closer to its political system and to enhance its soft power across the globe. Whether this has been successful has been analyzed for individual countries but, as of yet, there is a paucity of cross-national evidence on the geopolitical impact of the BRI. We collected a novel global dataset on bilateral cooperati ..read more

Research &Politics, Volume 11, Issue 1, January-March 2024. This article reviews and summarizes current reproduction and replication practices in political science. We first provide definitions for reproducibility and replicability. We then review data availability policies for 28 leading political science journals and present the results from a survey of editors about their willingness to publish comments and replications. We discuss new initiatives that seek to promote and generate high-quality reproductions and replications. Finally, we make the case for standards and practices that may ..read more