This will be my last blog. I’ll keep the site open until at least June 2019. So, I thought, what would be a suitable topic? I came up with: The two most influential factors that have affected my trading, and A suggestion. Without a doubt, one of the biggest influences (certainly for at least 20 years) are the works of Brene Brown. Her ideas provide the ‘why’ to the very effective ACT techniques. My key takeaways from her work are how the relationships between Shame, Vulnerability, Story, Empathy and Courage impact traders. Most important, her ideas draw us a roadmap on how to use ACT effecti ..read more

You have reached the half-way stage: the Eureka Moment. For me, it was a long journey. I didn’t spend too much time at Level 1 (Unconscious Incompetence). My upbringing and training prompted me to move on to Level 2 fairly quickly. But, I did spend an inordinate amount of time at Conscious Incompetence. I walked both routes of Level 2. I started by looking for the Holy Grail. And, it was not until I encountered Pete Steidlmayer that got on the right track. My mindset turned from seeking to control the outcome of a trade to a probability mindset. I came to understand the importance of risk man ..read more

Wait a minute, Ray! You said “six” steps in the title; but, the picture says “five”. No mistake, there are six steps, but the last one is hidden. You have to read the end of the series to know it. Let’s have a look at the first step: “unconscious incompetence”. We all begin here. We have unrealistic expectations of what the market will give us and how easy it will be. If you are unlucky like me, your first trades will happen to hit a flow stage (where everything you do makes money!). My unrealistic expectations confirmed, I sold my legal practice and then proceeded to experience seven years o ..read more

In yesterday’s webinar, I sought to make two points: The first: the advantage of mechanical systems lies in their simplicity. The disadvantage lies in the fact that simplicity assumes the structure of the market. If that assumption is incorrect, then the system will sustain consecutive losses. For example, if you use a reversion to mean system in a trending market, then you will experience a drawdown. The problem for retail traders is that they are unable to continue trading a system through its statistical drawdown. For example, a system may have the probability of ten consecutive losses. Th ..read more

I’ll use the S&P to illustrate the US Indices picture S&P, Cash, Weekly, chart through the courtesy of MarketAnalyst The chart above, the 13-week swing (quarterly trend), shows a potential sideways structure in the making. As the S&P, cash, moved into the Primary Sell Zone, the weekly volume has declined. S&P, Cash, Daily, chart through the courtesy of MarketAnalyst I have placed a 14-day ATR on the daily chart.  Even more pronounced than the volume decline is the decline in range. Normally, I’d be looking for a shorting opportunity – we see zone and setup. However, we have th ..read more

I have been keeping an eye on the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base since the financial crisis. Its data shows the funds deposited by banks with the FED. If you are wondering why no inflation despite QE, have a look at the chart below. St Louis FED, AMB What it tells me is much of QE entered the FED and has yet to be made available to Main Street. Since the funds aren’t circulating, no inflation. However, we can also see that since 2014, growth of the deposits has stalled. There was a breakdown in 2017 that produced another rally. Since then, we have meandered into new lows. The chart below sh ..read more

Zoe wrote: “Can you show me how you use ACT and Brown’s material in your trading?” I believe the integration of the ACT and Brown’s processes have a wider application than just for trading. We can use them to lead more worthwhile lives. Here’s how I view them. ACT process In my view, the ACT method is composed of two distinct sections: The left brain (the Commitment and Behaviour Changes in the diagram above) and The right brain (Mindfulness and Acceptance Processes). The left brain does all the planning. It identifies our values, it creates goals based on those values, and designs the actio ..read more

I’ve received enquiries: Is the April 18 event open to those not on my list? Could I send details of what I’ll be covering? Rather than send out individual replies, my answers: Yes. Here is the link: https://barrometrics.lpages.co/4-phase/ The page above outlines the content. Thanks to all who wrote in. The post 4-Phase Framework Link appeared first on Ray Barros' Blog for Trading Success ..read more

I received emails about the 4-Phase Framework: Did I not send out invitations for the public presentation? Can you give an example of a “soft stop”? INVITATION My apologies for the misunderstanding. The invitations to my list will be going out today and tomorrow. I mentioned in the post “Solution to a Burnt Trading Hand” that I had been running some beta programs. These are the invitation-only programs where I test my content to ensure that it will deliver on my objectives. EXAMPLE of ‘SOFT STOP’ An opportune request. Here is a trade that I exited last night. The chart below shows the entry a ..read more

We have had quite a few enrollments.  And, following new enrollments, a few emails. This time the thrust of the message was the same: am I happy with the results? Well, yes and no. Let’s have a look the start since its inception in Jan 2019. Psyquation is following my Axicorp account. The capital base is USD 200k. I initially deposited USD 100k but then withdrew USD 30K. The stats: Winning               Losing               Scratch 6 (13%)                 16 (36%)          23 (51%). Scratch trades defined as a result +/- USD 125.00. Avg win: $722.38 Avg loss: -$489.14 Expectancy return: $270 ..read more