Stocksatbottom
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
3M ago
One of the most fortunate things that happened to me as I was just beginning to invest in stocks was stumbling on an investment newsletter called Stocksatbottom.com. This was in the early 2000s.  That time wasn’t like today, what with Substack subscriptions from every Tom, Dick and Harry with an X account and a keyboard.  At that time most investment subscriptions were sent to you by postal mail.  An email subscription with a website was a relatively new phenomenon. Stocksatbottom was run by a guy named Richard Stoyeck.  Stoyeck talked about his “team”, but honestly I think ..read more
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Hoping for a Turnaround at Mercury Systems
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
3M ago
In the last few weeks I went through a whole bunch of sectors that are being blown out of the water.  Many of these sectors are getting creamed because no one eats any more. But there are a few that are falling for other reasons. One of these is the defense sector, where I found no relationship between its demise and the introduction of weight loss drugs. Because I don’t think that Ozempic will eliminate armed combat I went through the defense sector stocks and bought three of them.  I bought some Lockheed Martin, RTX and Mercury Systems.  Lockheed Martin and RTX are big and div ..read more
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Falling Knives in the S&P
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
3M ago
The S&P index is down about 6% and the Nasdaq about 8%.  By these measures, thus far it has been a correction but not a steep one. But it doesn’t feel like these moves in the indexes tell the whole story. You get a bit better sense of how the market has been performing by seeing the larger swath of small-cap companies included in the Russell 2000 index, which is down 11% from its high in late July. There are some individual situations that are much worse. This weekend I went through the individual stock charts of all the S&P names looking at what has really been crushed.  The ..read more
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What to do with Air Canada
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
6M ago
Air Canada has gotten whacked since it released its Q2 results.  The stock popped on the day of the results and has fallen since. I took a small position in the stock at $22.50, when it dipped after a good earnings report.  I thought: it was a good quarter, they guided well for Q3, the economy continues to do okay, they are hedged for fuel, and the stock is pretty oversold. That reasoning has not turned out very well.  The stock has continued down, all the way back to $20 and now we are really, really oversold.  My loss is at that 10% level where I usually revaluate and of ..read more
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Star Bulk Carriers
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
6M ago
I need to come up with a way to get my writing out on this blog more regularly. I haven’t posted in a while but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been researching and writing. I have. I have posts on Air Canada, Blue Bird, Crocs, UIPath, PagerDuty, Snowflake, HBT Financial, Innovative Solutions and a few others. I just keep getting this uncomfortable feeling about all the emails that get sent out when I put them on the blog. To try to get past that, I deleted about 400 subscribers that I have again accumulated over the past 4-5 years, when I last did a purge. There is only about 40-50 left and I thi ..read more
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Is Bank7 a Compounder?
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
8M ago
Bank7 got hit in March, along with the rest of the banking sector, but it never really traded down close to its 52-week lows.  It corrected, but the move in the stock looked more like volatility than any real secular change. That is probably for good reason.  Essentially it comes down to this.  For the last 5 years Bank7 has been averaging 22.1% return on tangible common equity.  Those returns even accelerated in Q1 and Q2 of this year. Since 2014 Bank7 has grown assets at a 15.9% CAGR.  Most of that organically, as this has only included a couple of acquisitions. B ..read more
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Another Banking Story – Eastern Bankshares
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
9M ago
As I have dug into the bank stocks over the last few months, one thing that has crystalized for me is the importance of flexibility. Apart from a few banks that aren’t really all that reliant on deposits, usually because they have other ancillary businesses that drive their income or because their loans are high-risk and what they pay for deposits is not that important, pretty much all the others are in the same boat.   Rising deposit costs and worries about commercial real estate dominate the risks. What differs, sometimes significantly, is how much flexibility they have to deal wit ..read more
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The Preferred Bank Story
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
9M ago
I research a lot of stocks. But I don’t write about most of them. This is because most research leads to bland conclusions that aren’t really all that inspiring to write about. For example, I spent a lot of time over the last two days learnign about Fastly.  I wrote 4 pages of notes.  I went through their investor day presentation, listened to the whole thing.  Went through their last couple conference calls.  Made a model. But I’m not going to write about it.  There is not much to say.  At the end of the day, Fastly is going to be marginally profitable in 2026.&n ..read more
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Want to See It, Kinda See It, at Least I See the Numbers
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
10M ago
I owned a few AI related names heading into this week – I had some PLTR, some INOD also some LPSN (which hasn’t worked, and I should probably dump).  I also own GOOGL of course. The first two have been almost like placeholders, I don’t really trust them, but they keep my foot in the door just in case AI is as big as the hype.  I have kept my positions small enough so as not to do damage if it isn’t.  Because I haven’t been able to really “see it”, as they say. I needed an ‘aha’ moment.  When I’m like oh, I get it, this is going to be huge. As of today, I still don’t feel li ..read more
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Well That’s Surprising
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
by Lsigurd
11M ago
I’ve spent the last 3 posts looking at banks.  And it’s not going to stop.   Because this is what I find interesting right now. From post #1 to post #3 my view has changed significantly.  I went from ‘OMG this is a disaster’ to ‘you know some banks should hold up okay’ to ‘its really weird how big the gap there is between what the stock price is doing and what bank management is guiding to’. All the time I scratch my head and wonder how it will end? My next installment is a ‘well that’s surprising’ post.  That is to say: ‘well that’s surprising’ that one of the banks a ..read more
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