Market Overview Quite frankly, we cannot ask for much more than what we saw this quarter. While bonds were slightly down over the last 90 days, stocks across the board were positive, some in a very big way. It seems to have happened quietly without much fanfare. Of course this plays to our biases – surely we would have strong feelings about the markets if US large cap stocks were down 10% in 3 months, but we don’t give much credit to things moving up in the same magnitude. If this quarter repeated itself indefinitely into the future we would all be wealth beyond our wildest dreams in a matter ..read more

Market Overview This was not a great quarter, to be fair. Stocks and bonds across the board were down. This happens! Sometimes we are up, sometimes we are down. Over 90 days, we were down. But it has been a very good 12 months. It has even been an especially good 12 months for international stocks, with the MSCI EAFE up 25.65%, handily outpacing US large and small caps. Bonds also struggled of late, as rates climbed over the summer. But again, over one year bond returns are positive. A difficult period in the short term, yes. But difficult is normal. And I know you’re tired of hearing me say t ..read more

Market Overview The second quarter in the markets this year has been strangely, wonderfully quiet. And as a result, we saw solid gains from many asset classes and most of us didn’t notice. Remember the banking crisis from just a few months ago? Gone, poof, in a whisper. This, of course, is what markets do. They scare us, then those scares die off and we get back to normal business operations while no one is looking. And so quietly, while everyone was still a little unsettled, we had ourselves a very nice quarter. US large cap stocks led the way, and we saw modest gains in international and sma ..read more

Market Overview The biggest financial news de jour is around a seemingly-lurking banking crisis that likely never was and never is to be, which is already fading into memory. We had ourselves a nice little scare for a few days, and as is nearly always the case, a little time and distance makes these moments seem immaterial. Each time it is hard to remember that is the most likely outcome! Plenty of every day investors and talking heads were convincing themselves we were running into Financial Crisis 2.0: The SVB Edition. So let’s talk about banking for a moment and glean a takeaway or two from ..read more

Market Overview Markets were up and then down again in the third quarter this year, resulting in nearly flat returns over the last three months for some sectors and modest losses for emerging markets and small cap US stocks. One year returns are still very strong coming out of late 2020, boosted by a very strong first half of this year. It is easy to get worked up about what is happening in the markets in the short run but rarely useful to make productive investment decisions based on any current news cycle. Markets have performed exceptionally well off of the lows from Spring 2020 but that do ..read more

It is getting harder and harder to talk about “markets” as if they are one collective organism and not a diaspora of individual companies, succeeding and failing, gaining and losing public favor, having great runs and terrible stretches. I could say that “the market” is up over the last twelve months but that would be a terrible description of what has really happened. What has really happened is that a handful of very popular, very large, very tech-oriented US stocks have had a spectacular period. And a whole lot (okay, the majority by gross number) have had a year ranging from mediocre to ab ..read more

It’s clear that 2020 will be a year for the history books. In February we were setting record market highs and economic activity continued its long, slow and steady growth out of the financial crisis over a decade removed. And then of course we were smacked in the face by one of the steepest declines in market prices and economic activity on record. Add in a healthy dose of social unrest, protests and demonstrations and we’ve had a decade of history in six months. All I can think of lately is just how unsettled everything feels in the world today. How long will we be dealing with public h ..read more

Where do I begin? Unless you’ve been lucky enough to be unplugged from the world for the last 6 weeks, there is little to say. The year started off well, coming off of the spectacular returns of 2019. But as fears about COVID 19 spread and it became clear that there was a serious global pandemic on hand, markets responded quickly and severely. Through the end of March, Large Cap US Stocks are down a tidy -20.00% and small caps have fallen considerably more, down -30.61%. The bear market left no one out, as international stocks were also down -23.43%.  Bond returns have been mixed through the r ..read more

First of all, take a minute to congratulate yourself. If you stuck with your investment strategy (whatever the type) over the last two weeks, you did so in a period of historic volatility. Since March 6th, you have been witness to three of the worst 20 single day declines in the DJIA (percentages, people) and one of the best 20 single day jumps as well in all history. On average, bear markets take about 8 months to get down 20%. This one? Less than a month. That’s pretty fast. And we felt it, all of us. Real fear, real panic, really fast selling. So if you have thus far managed not to complete ..read more

A sunny Sunday afternoon here outside of Denver. Warm enough that the kids have spent the better part of the day on their new joint-early-birthday-present trampoline (so far only one front-flip-induced black eye). For me, I’ve spent the day intentionally avoiding the news, Twitter, all social media. I had a pot of coffee and my book and crossword puzzles and rode my bike. Vacuumed and did some laundry to boot. And spent most of the day trying to garner some perspective about what’s going on in the world and the markets. The biggest realization I’ve had is how impossible this perspective would ..read more