Added comment - I forgot to make note of the wind gusts yesterday and will add here: Numerous sites reported gusts of 45 to 50 mph yesterday. I found 5 sites with gusts over 50 mph in southeastern Arizona. Tucson reported gusts to 53 mph as did Empire ranch; Ft. Huachuca had 52 mph; Pioneer Airfield reported 60 mph, and Guthrie reported 67 mph. I estimate that we had gusts here at house in the 50 to 55 mph range. It was a cold, nasty wind. Golden skies over the Catalinas at 6:00 am this Saturday morning. There were light showers and sprinkles scattered around the metro area after midnight l ..read more

Sunrise this morning at about 6:10 am MST. Forecast of 500 mb level from 06 UTCGFS (above) valid at 00 UTC on 6 April. Below is forecast for 250 mb from the same model run - note the very strong upper-level jet over southeastern Arizona with maximum speeds over 150 kt. Forecast above (from 12 UTC WRF-RR run at Atmo) is for total precipitation through 2:00 am on Saturday the sixth - just a bit of light precipitation over parts of Pima County. Forecast below is for wind speeds from the same model run valid at 2:00 pm tomorrow afternoon, showing quite strong winds at the airport. Mornin ..read more

Morning showers on the Catalinas at 7:30 am April 1st - no fooling. Data from the ALERT network for 24 hours ending at 7:30 am (above and below) shows 100 coverage of amounts greater than 0.04". Here at house we had 0.75" in the gauge this morning - most of this fell before midnight, with about a tenth of an inch after midnight. Atmo reported 0.52", DM had 0.42":, and the airport reported 0.29". Heaviest amounts in the ALERT network were on the north side of the Catalinas - even the high elevation sites started out as rain. The TWC/TUS sounding this morning (above) shows moist conditio ..read more

Showers on the Catalinas already this Easter morning(view above from 7:50 am MST). Light sprinkles here at house. The 12 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) don't get things really started here until around noon. The 12 UTC runs of the WRF-RR at Atmo show a similar scenario - above is total precipitation through noon and below shows total precipitation through midnight tonight ..read more

Some pre-sunrise color at about 6:05 am MST this morning - looking toward the Rincons. The 500 mb forecast from 06 UTC GFS run showing strong trough from eastern Idaho south to central Baja. Precipitation forecast (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS - below) indicates significant precipitation event for most of Arizona through 5:00 am on Tuesday, April 2nd. The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC (second below) indicate averages for airport around 0.75". Morning graphic from NWS TUS Forecast Office (below) summarizes situation through April 1st. The NWS forecast POPs are 70 to 80 percent at the airport from Sunday ..read more

Storm in foothills at 4:50 pm MST yesterday afternoon. This one skipped by to our east, but there were heavy showers later, around 7:00 to 7:30 pm at the house. View at bottom is looking toward Redington Pass at 5:25 am this morning. There were only isolated CG flashes in eastern Pima County yesterday. Above plot shows flashes detected through 0833 UTC this early morning (from Atmo and Vaisala). Graphic below shows 24-hour rainfall amounts ending at 15 UTC this morning (from Univ. of Utah). Here at house we had 0.12". GEFS plumes from 06 UTC runs (above) are for precipitation at the air ..read more

View toward the Rincons at 6:15 am MST shows a bit of color. Light rains fell over much of the lower elevation Alert sites during the past 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (above and below). Here at the house there were showers late in the afternoon and a couple of times during the night. Gauge showed 0.11" this morning. Plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC this morning) shows that most thunderstorm activity avoided the metro area. The 06 UTC QPF plumes (below) suggest that a more significant event may develop for the first day or two of April. F ..read more

Snowy morning up in Summerhaven - view above is from 9:50 am MST. ALERT plots (above and below) show rain amounts across the network for 24-hour period ending at 6:00 am this morning. Note that rain event occurred mostly from 3 to 5 am, early this morning. Here the house we had 0.25", as did Atmo; the airport reported 0.30" and DM had 0.36". Plot of detected CG flashes (second below - from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 1703 UTC this morning. There were thunderstorms in Pima County but they mostly avoided the metro area. Note that the airport did record a wind gust to 45 mph a ..read more

View to the east at 6:20 am MST this morning. Forecast for 500 mb valid at 06 UTC on 25 March from the 06 UTC GFS run last night. Strong short-wave is across Arizona to west of San Diego. QPF plumes for the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs, with several periods of rain indicated from early Sunday through through Tuesday. There a large range in the amounts of almost an inch. Plumes for temperature (above) indicate strong cooling starting Saturday night, but with recovery to warm temperatures by end of the week. Plumes for wind (below) indicate several periods of strong winds during the w ..read more

View looking toward Rincons/Redington Pass at 6:15 am MST this morning. GEFS plumes from 06 UTC for QPF. Showers indicated as likely Sunday into first part of next week.  Plumes for wind (above) and temperature (below) indicate windy on the weekend. Plumes for temperature calling for much cooler on Sunday and Monday. At bottom is 00 UTC graphic for precipitation through 5:00 am on March 25th ..read more