Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. It is likely that we will see pandemic lows for hospitalizations and deaths in the next several weeks.  That is welcome news! For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,027 but are still slightly above the low of 5,386 last year. COVID Metrics   Now Week Ago Goal Hospitalized2 5,899 6,686 ≤3,0001 Deaths per Week2 779 982 ≤3501 1my goals to ..read more

From BofA: Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Apr 19th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP forecast unchanged at +3.1% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales forecast also unchanged at +3.1% (qoq ar). [Apr 18th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on April 16, up from 2.8 percent on April 15. [April 16th estimate ..read more

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Continues to Loosen Amidst Worsening Financing Conditions Apartment market conditions continued to weaken in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for April 2024. With the exception of Sales Volume (52), which turned positive this quarter, the Market Tightness (41), Equity Financing (49), and Debt Financing (44) indexes all came in below the breakeven level (50). ... "[T]he U.S. apartment market ..read more

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 April Helped by the total solar eclipse, U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 April. ... 7-13 April 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 65.8% (+2.8%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.20 (+2.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.48 (+5.8%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024, black is ..read more

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.7% year-over-year compared to March 2023. This was the thirty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. There is much more in the article ..read more

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March Existing-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.3 ..read more

The DOL reported: In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 3.2. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release March existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, April 18th at 10:00AM ET. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million in February. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.23 million SAAR for March. ... And a table of March sales. In March, sales in these markets were down 9.7% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 1.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adju ..read more

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite mixed across Districts and spending categories. Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers' price sensitivity remained elevated. Auto spending was buoyed notably in some Districts by improved inventories and dealer incentives, but sale ..read more