
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
2,298 FOLLOWERS
Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS)Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods. The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
MYEG
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
FY REV NP NPM(%)
2017 372 202 54.2
2018 319 170 53.4
2018 246 -41.4 -16.8
2019 357 175 49
2019 239 130 54.3
2020 532 268 50.4
2021 724 316 43.6
2022 651 399 61.2
2023 774 488 63
2024(3Q) 723 516 71.4
Revenues and Net Profits are in RM millions ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
Every business goes through the S-curve cycle of growth:
infancy (low growth),
expansion (rapid growth) and
maturity (slow growth).
No matter how successful the product is, growth must slow at some point (maturity phase), due to a number of reasons:
increased competition,
market saturation,
technology disruption,
regulatory changes and
changing consumer preferences.
VALUE CREATION OR DESTRUCTION: MANAGEMENT'S ROLE
Ultimately, whether a company remains VALUE CREATIVE OR DESTRUSTIVE, depends on how well management understand this inevitab ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
Savvy investors know about the corporate life cycle:
start-up,
rapid growth phase,
mature growth phase,
stagnation or outright decline.
Companies in their startup phase lose money.
If they're successful, though, they enter a rapid growth period, where sales - and eventually profits - shoot upward.
Then, alas, comes the point when the company has exhausted all of the easy growth opportunities. The low-hanging fruit has been picked. The company enters a mature phase in which sales maybe growing, but at a much slower rate than before.
Finally, in a company's do ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
You have to invest. Inflation is the enemy of your cash. Compounding is the friend of your cash. You do not have a choice but to invest for the long term. The purchasing power of your cash continues to be eroded by inflation.
You have no choice but to be educated on investing. Either you invest on your own or you invest through a fund, you will still require an education on investing, to be able to do so intelligently on your own or even to know how to use or work with your fund managers.
The earlier you obtain this education, the better.
Sadly, the schools during my time, and perhaps ev ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
The most popular valuation metrics are
Price/Earnings,
Price/Ebidta,
Price/Sales,
Price/Book value and
EV/Ebitda. (EV or Enterprise Value = Market cap + Debt).
Many different methods as listed above are used to arrive at the valuation for stocks.
However, remember that there is ever only one definition for valuation: the discounted cash flow.
All the above metrics are merely short forms or shortcuts for discounted cash flow.
These metrics are widely used because they are easier to compute and understand, and can be compared across companie ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
Companies that are trading at negative enterprise value (EV)
EV = market value of common stock + market value of preferred equity + market value of debt + minority interest - cash and investments.
Why is the market having a very negative perception of the company's future prospects (rightly or wrongly), governance and/or believe the cash is not real?
Some of these companies are simply too small, and not tradeable.
Some are shell companies waiting for a corporate exercise.
There are many reasons:
Fake bank statements
It is very hard to fake bank statements and accordingly, net cash ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
Often, companies trade at discounts to their net cash and more broadly, the value of their underlying assets, because of the "time to monetisation" factor.
Investors are generally not patient enough to wait for asset value to crystallise.
An example:
Many property companies are currently trading below their book values, not for any of the ominous reasons, but simply because they are land-banking. The land is valuable but it takes many years to be developed and translated into earnings, cash flows and returns to shareholders.
In these cases, opportunity arises when the compan ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
If you are thinking of investing in the shares of airline, rail or retail companies, and many others, you need to understand of the biggest risks that you will face as a shareholder - hidden debts.
By understanding what hidden debts are and how to analyse companies that have them, you will make better investment decisions and take on less risk.
Retail company with big future rent commitments
Where a company has big future rent commitments, there are 2 useful things you can do:
1. Calculate a company's fixed charge cover.
2. Calculate the capitalised value of operating lease ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
Look out for companies that report consistent profits but also a substantial rise in gearing, which would indicate negative FCF.
Receivables and/or inventories rise even faster than increasing sales
This is usually the case when companies report increasing sales but where receivables and/or inventories rise even faster.
If a company's receivables grow at a much faster rate than revenue, it will suffer net cash outflows, which have to be funded with increasing debt (or cash calls). It can continue to report steady profits for many years - even as the company is being crushed ..read more
myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)
3M ago
These metrics rely on reported profits or earnings rather than cash flows:
P/E
P/EBITDA
P/S
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
Profits may not reflect the actual underlying cash flows.
Some examples:
1. Interest paid on perpetual securities (perps)
These are not considered interest expense, thereby inflating profits.
At the same time, accounting for perps as equity also understates the company's actual gearing.
2. Companies can capitalise interest expense as assets in certain circumstances
Interests during construction of assets or when property developers borrow to p ..read more