A moderate solar storm provides the potential for an aurora extending southward into Washington State tonight and tomorrow night. In fact, quite a decent auroral show was evident last night over northwest Washington, documented by Greg Johnson of Skunk Bay Weather (on the northern tip of the Kitsap Peninsula).  Check it out below! The current Kp score, a measure of solar activity, was as high as 5 a few hours ago, enough to push the aurora southward into the northern U.S. The last prediction of the NOAA Space Weather Center shows the southern extent of auroral visibility reaching Oly ..read more

The University of Washington has been experiencing some major problems of late, including a costly financial system that is failing, violent/destructive students doing major damage to the student union, and a serious homeless problem on campus, to name only a few. Two years ago, the highly respected Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), rated the UW as the lowest-ranked public university in the nation regarding freedom of speech and expressing diverse views.   But perhaps the greatest threat to the UW comes from the development of a huge DEI (Diversity, Equity, an ..read more

I had to water some new plants today because the last few weeks have been relatively.   So I was curious.....how dry has it been in our region? Below is the March 22-April 12th precipitation in Seattle for the past 75 years.  This year we had 1.5 inches over the period when 2.5 inches is more typical.   Not a record dry year by any means, since some years had only about 0.3 inches for the same period.  Interestingly, early springs have gotten a bit wetter over the past 75 years, so one can't blame the dryness on global warming. Another reason you can't blame glo ..read more

Last year was a cherry disaster for the West Coast and the key driver was the cool/wet weather late last winter and spring in California.   This resulted in a very bountiful but late California cherry crop that became available at the same time as the larger Northwest cherry harvest, which was early because of a few warm weeks in May. With too many cherries available simultaneously, cherry prices plummeted and several Northwest orchards left their cherries on the trees. Cherry armageddon! But this year should be much better for cherry growers and lovers of the red fruit such as m ..read more

The solar eclipse had substantial impacts on local weather, some of which might surprise. First, many reported a "miracle", with the clouds thinning just before the eclipse. And the "miracle" was true, but there is a scientific explanation!  But first, let me show you what happened. Just before the eclipse there were a lot of low clouds over the totality path in northeastern Texas (see blue oval area below) But during and right after the eclipse, many of the clouds were gone (see below) Divine intervention?  The influence of the prayers of the astronomically devoted?    ..read more

The forecasts have not been favorable for the many total eclipse seekers in Texas, with considerable clouds forecast for tomorrow morning.   But the latest forecasts show this is a significant chance to experience the full impact of the total eclipse in a narrow band across a portion of northern Texas--one worth a try. A Hail Mary strategy for eclipse enthusiasts. For those not familiar with this terminology: In American football, a Hail Mary pass is a long forward pass with a low chance of being completed, usually made in desperation. It's often used by the losing team wh ..read more

We are now within 72h of the Monday solar eclipse and the forecast models are in agreement. Unfortunately, the situation I discussed in my blog on March 28th will come to pass: substantial clouds over much of the total eclipse tracks, particularly in Mexico and Texas where many are going. As a reminder, a map showing the path of totality is shown below.  From Mazatlan to Dallas to Columbus to northern Maine. The cloud forecast for 1800 UTC April 8 (near the time of the eclipse) from the latest U.S. GFS model run is shown below.  The European Center forecast for the same time is als ..read more

Last evening around 6 PM I was enjoying a run with my dog around Seattle's Magnuson Park and noticed some amazing clouds. The bottom of the cloud deck was distorted by strange waves and structures.  So unusual that several people sent me pictures and the nearby National Weather Service office posted some pictures (see some samples below). Picture courtesy of the NWS Seattle Office Picture provided by John McBride These stunning clouds have an impressive name: Undulatus Asperatus.   Often they are simply called Asperitas clouds. You can get another perspective on these cloud ..read more

 We are now close enough to the April 8 total eclipse that the skill of our models is now appreciable. And many of these increasingly skillful forecasts indicate a real threat to good viewing over Texas and much of the Midwest, where many plan to go. A double threat exists: clouds associated with two features: the subtropical jet and a low-pressure area moving in from the southwest U.S. This blog will describe these important features and the current uncertainties in the forecast. Let me start with the forecast cloud cover near the time of the Monday eclipse (11 AM PDT, 2 PM EDT, 8 A ..read more

There is a lot of concern about cloudiness obscuring the sun during next Monday's total eclipse. Interestingly it turns out that such eclipse-viewing problems are increasing as the earth warms up due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. A recent study in the Journal of Climate Statistics by Professor Wade Rocston of the University of Western East New Brunswick documents a significant (23%) increasing trend in cloud-obscured solar eclipses. The origin of the increasing cloud cover is clear according the Professor Rocston.  Increasing CO2 leads to global warm ..read more