Yes, I know, the next presidential election is still eons away, but le bal des prétendants was already well under way when the orchestra struck several false notes. First, it was revealed that in the wake of the Covid and energy crises, which the government chose to ameliorate by spending freely, the budget deficit had risen to 5.5%. Then Édouard Philippe was hit with a search warrant, alleging that he was part of a scheme to … well, suffice it to say that the details are too tedious to recount, and of course everyone is presumed innocent until the fat lady sings (remind François Fi ..read more

Last week President Macron surprised everyone by suggesting that some European countries might send troops to Ukraine if necessary to prevent a Russian victory. Perhaps that’s putting what he said too strongly: one might rephrase his remarks to mean that he didn’t rule out the possibility. But was this simply a standard “all options remain on the table” comment or something more? Clearly, European allies took it to mean something more. And so did Vladimir Putin, who promptly pushed back by rattling the nuclear saber once again. But perhaps there’s less here than meets the eye. Until now, Macr ..read more

Emmanuel Macron is putting the resistance fighter Missak Manouchian in the Pantheon but has disinvited the Rassemblement National from the ceremony. The RN intends to make its presence felt anyway “despite the president’s insulting words.” This despite Macron’s effort to soften the blow by allowing that the RN is not “overtly antisemitic and negationist as [its predecessor] the Front National was.” A deft pirouette by Macron, who had previously contradicted his prime minister Gabriel Attal for including the RN in “the republican arc.” Macron would prefer it remain outside the republican arc b ..read more

5. Politics In a broad survey piece like this, I can’t cover party politics across Europe in any detail. Even summarizing political developments in the countries I follow closely is impossible. Nevertheless, I will venture a few brief remarks, mostly about France, the country I know best. When I wrote my 2017 chronicle, prior to that year’s presidential election, Macron’s analysis of France’s political dilemma, self-serving though it was, seemed to me not altogether implausible. Because the two dominant parties of that time, the Socialists (PS) and the Republicans (LR), had both moved toward ..read more

This is the fourth part of a series of posts on the state of the European Union. 4. The Environment Environmental concerns have transformed politics in Europe more profoundly than anywhere else. Climate denialism is far less influential in Europe than in the United States, and most major parties have incorporated green planks into their platforms. There is genuine commitment to the idea that reform is essential, at least in the long run. But there are also signs of resistance owing to the distributive consequences of environmental reform. The Gilets Jaunes uprising in France was precipitated ..read more

3. Economy For most of its history, economic issues have dominated the politics of the European Union at both the national level and the European level. Unfortunately, those two debates–national and European–often seemed to take place in different universes. In Brussels and Frankfurt, among technocrats, the discussion often sounded like a bloodless seminar in economics, while political leaders enthused about the anticipated benefits of the positive-sum outcome that would result from freer trade, more open borders, and rule-based cooperation. More raucous and contentious exchanges about the di ..read more

This is the second installment of a series of posts on the European Union, the first of which appeared here yesterday and dealt with security. Today’s topic is: Immigration European attitudes toward immigration are complex and contradictory. A widespread desire to see immigration flows reduced has been a crucial factor in driving voters toward right-wing populist parties. Yet at the same time there is recognition that labor shortages and demographic challenges create a need for continued immigration. The contradiction is perhaps most visible in the U.K. (not an EU member-state, of course), wh ..read more

Having been charged by The Tocqueville Review with the task of contributing a reflection on the state of the European Union as a prelude to the European parliamentary elections, I thought I’d avail myself of this blog to offer a preview of my thoughts. Although I normally limit myself in this venue to remarks on French politics, I think it’s important to see France in the context of Europe, and the EU is always in the background of what I write, even though I generally comment on France’s internal tussles. Attempting to peer into the future is inherently a risky business, but on looking back ..read more

In his inaugural speech to the National Assembly today, French prime minister Gabriel Attal used the word “rearmament” 14 times, “poverty” only once. He indicated that his government would be a government of deeds, not words, thoughts, or theories. And already he has been out on the hustings–of necessity rather than by choice–appearing behind improvised podiums made of haystacks to assure protesting farmers that he is with them in spirit, even as CRS armored vehicles shove their tractors off the roads. In short, tragedy and farce have now been supplanted by polished production values in a pro ..read more

France has a new prime minister but not yet a new government. Perhaps the delay is intended to wring the full benefit of Gabriel Attal’s popularity from his nomination before the inevitable disappointment of discovering that the new government is pretty much like the old government but for the absence of a few (not always) familiar faces and the presence of a couple of new hopefuls. These ritual reshufflings are soon forgotten even by journalists, who are pretty much the only people to take much of an interest in them, and then only out of professional duty. In any case, the pros have already ..read more